Its less premium-driven price point has long made it the mainstay coffee for dark roasts, as well as a blend component in house blends, espresso blends, and more. With a current 50% tariff on Brazilian imports and a volatile “C” market, many roasters may need to reconsider their sourcing strategy to counter the rising costs. At Royal New York, we want to be a source of calm and provide options. Learn how tariffs are changing the outlook for Brazilian coffee, what it means for your lineup, and which origins can help you adapt without losing balance in your blends. Brazil Tariff Impact on the Coffee Market Brazil supplies about one-third of the coffee consumed in the United States. As of August 6, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on these imports. The cost is not absorbed by Brazil, but by U.S. importers, who pass it along at higher prices to roasters and, ultimately, the consumer. In turn, the tariff will reroute Brazilian beans to Europe and Asia, forcing U.S. importers to seek alternatives from Mexico, Central America, and Africa. We have seen traders, including us, rushing to bring in Brazilian shipments before the tariff deadline. However, future shipments will be substantially more expensive and will have to be replaced by non-Brazilian sources.

Coffee Prices Surge

Coffee prices, as measured by the ICE KCH’25 futures contract, saw an extraordinary surge higher during the month of November. Prices traded as low as $2.4080/lb. on November 1st and moved dramatically higher, reaching a 47-year high on November 29th of $3.3545 before settling that day at $3.1805. Coffee market observers have witnessed dramatic price moves and volatility in years past, but to see prices move almost 40% higher in one month without a cataclysmic weather event in Brazil is unheard of.

Weather Impacting High Coffee Price

Drought conditions and higher-than-normal temperatures in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions beginning in spring and summer of this year have many concerned that the coffee trees are stressed from these weather issues and that the next crop (May 2025) could be impacted. The coffee market has seen supply issues throughout the past few years. Vietnam, the largest producer of robusta beans, had weather-related issues in 2023 and 2024 which helped keep coffee prices at historically high levels throughout 2024. To the concern of all in the importing and roasting trade: how high can these prices go, and when will this market correct to a more manageable level? We will continue to monitor the development of this next Brazil crop as this will greatly influence where prices go.